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  • Future electricity load forecast

    A_87

    Member

    Updated: Oct 25, 2024
    Views: 949
    Hey guys

    Does anyone know of a fancy technique to predict the load profile of a building based on last years hourly data? Assuming the demand is going up every year how do we quantify it?
    I have thought about stochastics as a statistical technique but was wondering if theres a better match?


    Thanks
    0
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Replies

  • amurray

    Member • Mar 18, 2011

    Hello,

    Some electrical load forecasting uses past load, past weather and weather forecasts to create load forecasts. These can also involve feedback on past load forecast vs actual to tune a model.

    Andy
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  • narayana murthy

    Member • Mar 18, 2011

    but we cant directly say about load on depending on previous data
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  • freak16

    Member • Mar 19, 2011

    now a days artifical neural networks is gaining more footage for realizing the load forecast studies..
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  • narayana murthy

    Member • Mar 19, 2011

    freak16
    now a days artifical neural networks is gaining more footage for realizing the load forecast studies..
    but we can say the load forecast because we are having already load fluctuations even we can't say how much load will be after 10 min so how can say for future
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  • aj_onduty

    Member • Mar 20, 2011

    Not just the hourly data, as said by andy, we require to know the weather conditions too. For example, the weather in Mumbai has been very much different when compared to last year. This march has seen the lowest and the highest temperatures. So, the need of an AC or the heater had also been the highest. So, we need t know how the weather would change, if not exactly, at least roughly.
    Also, many factors like usage of less power consuming equipments. For example, you have to observe the trends of people too. People are increasingly using CFLs, 5 star rated equipments and even solar power in their homes. So, we have to observe these trends too, how much it may decrease the demand. Hourly data is the basic thing you will need. Other information are add-ons to give you a better projected demand.
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  • shubhankar

    Member • Mar 21, 2011

    i think we need to take into account the future developments expected and the applications received from various firms for further installations. ofcourse the previous year's load and energy curve is referred. but in addition to that further energy developments are also anticipated.
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