Recession - Is it our imagination??!!

Hi,
Yesterday, there was an event conducted as part of the inauguration of a festival of our quality club. There was a panel discussion planned on the topic of "Recession - What is it and what to do about it?". The panelists invited were


  • Ms Haseen Taj - VP, Citibank
  • Mr Vaithyanathan - president, cognizant
  • The president, TVS motors ( I forgot his name) and
  • Mr Jagannathan - senior assistant editor, The Hindu
They talked about recession and all. One particular story told by Ms. Haseen Taj seemed very different to me. I share it with you guys..


In America, there was an illiterate, who used to sell hot dogs. He didnt know to read or write. He just had a small hot dog shop and it was running ok. Later, he set up a colourful board in front of his shop, announced incentives like buy one, get one free, and other such schemes, and business was quite good.

By then, his son graduated from college, and came home. He assessed his father's way of doing business. Over dinner, he said, "Dad, do you know there's recession going on now? Do you have any idea how the whole world is struggling right now?". To which, the father replied, "How will I know, son? I'm after all an illiterate." And then, the son explained the recession to his father and proposed an xyz action plan. Cut x% of staff, increase the price by y%, cut raw materials by z%, et all.

Following this, the father did as he was asked. There was no colorful board now, no free hot dogs. Soon, the business slowed down, and became very poor.

Now, the father went home, and told his son, " Son, you know what, all you told seems to be true man. Business is really down these days. There's something going on".
With that she finished the story, and said that the moral is, we are imagining things, and are overcautious. She asked us students to shake all our fears and move on.
While I personally dont have a solid opinion about whether India is really in recession or not, the panelists generally seemed to agree to the story.
Now, how was the story and what is your opinion about this? Let your thoughts flow.

Replies

  • Kaustubh Katdare
    Kaustubh Katdare
    I use the common sense approach.

    LB collapsed and so did few of the depending businesses. The so-called finance experts told everyone that we are heading into a recession. The word spread around. People started spending lesser and lesser. The money from the market started piling up in banks/homes etc. That lead to failure of many small businesses. The domino effect breezed in. The cycle continues.

    We'll get over this recession in next 4-5 months. Again, the reason is simple. People will start spreading the word that recession is evaporating - and people will start shelling out money. Businesses will start making money and lead to more employment opportunities.

    It's all imaginary. Trust me.
  • Yamini L
    Yamini L
    Well said Biggie๐Ÿ‘
    There is no recession..It is an imagination,over exaggeration..
    ITS ALL IN YOUR MIND....If you think that we are into recession then none can help you..Its just a slowdown in the economy..Recession is NEGATIVE GROWTH but slowdown means the rate ofgrowth is slowing,BUT WE ARE STILL GROWING.๐Ÿ˜...


    First, we need to remember what a recession is: at least 2 quarters, back to back, of economic shrinkage. That's 6 months of the economy shrinking.I dont think this is the case with many of the countries.To be specifichere in India,GDP has declined,but we are not shrinking..

    I came across this small story in a blog..Do have a look at it..

    This Story is about a man who once upon a time was selling Hotdogs by the roadside.

    He was illiterate, so he never read newspapers. He was hard of hearing, so he never listened to the radio.

    His eyes were weak, so he never watched television. But enthusiastically, he sold lots of hotdogs.

    He was smart enough to offer some attractive schemes to increase his sales. His sales and profit went up.

    He ordered more a more raw material and buns and use to sale more. He recruited few more supporting staff to serve more customers.

    He started offering home deliveries. Eventually he got himself a bigger and better stove. As his business was growing, the son, who had recently graduated from College, joined his father.

    Then something strange happened.

    The son asked, "Dad, aren't you aware of the great recession that is coming our way?" The father replied, "No, but tell me about it." The son said, "The international situation is terrible. The domestic situation is even worse. We should be prepared for the coming bad times."

    The man thought that since his son had been to college, read the papers, listened to the radio and watched TV. He ought to know and his advice should not be taken lightly.

    So the next day onwards, the father cut down the his raw material order and buns, took down the colourful signboard, removed all the special schemes he was offering to the customers and was no longer as enthusiastic. He reduced his staff strength by giving layoffs.

    Very soon, fewer and fewer people bothered to stop at his hotdog stand. And his sales started coming down rapidly, same is the profit.

    The father said to his son, "Son, you were right". "We are in the middle of a recession and crisis. I am glad you warned me ahead of time."

    Moral of The Story: It's all in your MIND! And we actually FUEL this recession much more than we think..
  • Yamini L
    Yamini L
    OOPS๐Ÿ˜”๐Ÿ˜’....First i just read the question alone..only after posting my reply,I read the above story....Its already been posted..anyways message is conveyed๐Ÿ˜
  • Saandeep Sreerambatla
    Saandeep Sreerambatla
    yes i too read this story in our Org chain of mails and yes i too believe we are thinking more than what actually it is..๐Ÿ˜Ž
  • sauravgoswami
    sauravgoswami
    Well recession has really effected some companies while most of the companies are acting caution,and behing recession they re clearing their debts and trimming manpower,as far Indian firm goes not a single industry except IT cos are that badly hit,even IT majors of india are doing as expected though they are not showing
  • Mayur Pathak
    Mayur Pathak
    It's all imaginary. Trust me.
    *Safely concludes, none of you here understand finance here*

    Without doubt, its all in the mind except the financial numbers which cannot be denied. Look at it this way-

    1. A bank was in the business of lending money to the individuals and corporations.
    2. It was successful over the years and decided to venture into more risky but more money making business.
    3. They were successful in doing that as well and ended up becoming a financial giant.
    4. All its competitors decided to jump the band wagon, looking at the company's phenomenal growth.
    5. This meant more competition. The demand for the 'risky' services was now consumed by too many corporations now.
    6. This forced most of them to do business at very low margin.
    7. The bubble finally burst and all these corporations were left with huge volumes of 'dead assets.'
    8. These corporations were investment banks on whom rested the future of many other businesses.
    9. One bad management decision pushed us all on the brink of recession.
    10. One industry affected the other and then the other and here are we now... in midst of huge companies facing bankruptcy.

    Its all in the mind for every one who is not affected or not in business.
  • sauravgoswami
    sauravgoswami
    @mayur : but it is common in every business,when the business flourishes competition increses too,so investment banks should have taken necessary measures.
  • shalini_goel14
    shalini_goel14
    hey Nice story Scorpion and miniy ๐Ÿ˜€

    Well I can say only one thing- ๐Ÿ˜

    "If you know how to deal or face the problems in front of you, no one is going to affect you whether it is recession or inflation."
  • Mayur Pathak
    Mayur Pathak
    sauravgoswami
    @mayur : but it is common in every business,when the business flourishes competition increses too,so investment banks should have taken necessary measures.
    Well thats what I wanted to say. They didn't and now the economy is suffering because of them.

    @Shalini: Well said

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